Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert starts off leading Democrat Trisha Calvarese by a sizable margin, but that lead turns into a nearly equal deficit after voters hear about Boebert's positions on abortion and other issues, according to an internal poll conducted by a Colorado firm for the Calvarese campaign.
Boebert is one of six Republicans running in next month's primary for the seat formerly held by Republican Ken Buck, who resigned from Congress in March, while Calvarese, a former speechwriter for the AFL-CIO and staffer at the National Science Foundation, is one of three Democrats seeking her party's nomination in the solid red 4th Congressional District.
In a simultaneous special election, voters in the district will also elect someone to fill the remainder of Buck's term through the end of the year, choosing between Calvarese,Republican Greg Lopez, Libertarian Hannah Goodman and Approval Voting Party nominee Frank Attwood.
A Keating Research poll of likely voters made available for review to Colorado Politics found the better-known Boebert beating Calvarese 49% to 37%, with 12% undecided, in a hypothetical general election contest. However, Calvarese jumped to a 47% to 38% lead over Boebert, with 13% undecided, after voters were read a handful of statements about the two candidates. Both margins were outside the poll's 4.4% margin of error.
The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted April 18-24 by live telephone interviewers. The pollster said the sample represents likely general election voters based on party registration, gender, age, region and ethnicity.
Chris Keating, the Democratic firm's founder, told Colorado Politics the points that appeared to move voters most included Boebert's votes on veterans' health care legislation, her support for a national abortion ban and a reminder about the scandal that engulfed Boebert late last summer when she was ejected from a Denver performance of the musical "Beetlejuice" for vaping and other disruptive behavior.
That massive, unusual shift in voter sentiment suggests the state's most prominent Republican could be unexpectedly vulnerable if she wins the GOP nomination in her adopted district, said Keating, the only pollster to have accurately shown Boebert had a close race on her hands in the last election.
Boebert defeated Democratic challenger Adam Frisch in 2022 by fewer than 600 votes in the GOP-leaning 3rd Congressional District, a seat national election forecasters had called safely Republican up until Election Day. Contrary to that consensus, Keating pegged the race as a dead heat in an internal poll for Frisch released shortly before voters began casting ballots.
Facing a rematch against Frisch, who set state fundraising records and out-raised Boebert by wide margins all year, the two-term Republican announced late last year that she was moving from the Western Slope-based 3rd CD into the safer 4th CD, which covers Douglas County, Loveland and Colorado's Eastern Plains. Buck had earlier announced he wouldn't seek reelection to a sixth term.
Boebert's current position in the new district reflects her high unfavorable scores, said Keating, noting that his polling found she's deeply underwater, particularly with the district's unaffiliated voters.
"If you look at the demographics of the district, you've got an 18-point Republican advantage, and Buck won by 23-24 points," Keating said. "It’s a tough place for any Democrat to win, but I think having Boebert on the ticket, this poll shows Trisha has a real opportunity, because all these suburban-exurban voters are not too thrilled about her not standing up for veterans, her national abortion ban and the 'Beetlejuice' incident."
"That’s what swings it," Keating added. "You go to basically 2-to-1 for Trisha with unaffiliateds, and up 52% to 34% with women, after hearing these things."
Boebert's campaign declined to comment on the Democrat's internal poll.
It's the second recent internal poll that shows Boebert facing strong headwinds in a hypothetical general election matchup. A survey conducted by the nonpartisan firm Gravis Marketing for Democrat Ike McCorkle, a Marine veteran making his third run for the seat, showed McCorkle leading Boebert in a hypothetical general election contest 41% to 27%, with 33% undecided, with a 4.7% margin of error.
Calvarese and McCorkle share the Democratic primary ballot with John Padora, an engineer and addiction-recovery advocate.
Boebert's primary opponents are former state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg, R-Sterling, and state Reps. Mike Lynch, R-Wellington, Richard Holtorf, R-Akron, former talk radio host and nonprofit founder Deborah Flora and business consultant Peter Yu.
Ballots go out to voters during the first full week of June and are due back to county clerks by 7 p.m. on June 25.
